EURAUD

EURAUD 4HR

The EURAUD as completed 3 waves down and should find strong resistance at the 1.4331 level, expecting prices to rally to around 1.4331 to 1.4357 before testing the low at 1.4192. If prices mange to break above 1.4331 prices may go as far as 1.4375 before finding resistance.  

EURUSD

EUR/USD 4Hr

Expecting the EUR/USD to rally to around 1.352 to 1.355 (red rectangle) before retesting the lows. If prices however break below 1.3449 prices may go as low as 1.343 before rising.

Resistance: Major resistance is 1.3549
Support: Major support 1.3434

Trading with 5m Force strategy, Day 24

Today I had to go to work, so market monitoring was not so meticulous. At around 10:00 a.m price gave a good buy signal which I missed. Here is the trade-

Figure 01: EURUSD 5m chart

Price moved sharply up for more than 10 solid pips. Then price started to move sideways within the previous supply area. From the top region of the area, price started to move downwards. Missed this nice entry.

Figure 02: EURUSD 5m chart

Price then started to move upwards after the downward movement. Price then reached the supply area again which was the first revisit of price into the supply area. From there, short trade could be taken.

Figure 03: EURUSD 5m chart.

But there were few supply and demand area below it. So short trade will not be wise. Then price pattern starte to from a symmetrical triangle.

Figure 04: EURUSD 5m chart

Price broke upwards. There were longer term upper TL and weekly pivot above. But both were broken.?

Figure 05: EURUSD 5m chart. "Symmetrical triangle"

?Price formed a descending triangle above the previous triangle.?

Figure 06: EURUSD 5m chart. "Descending Triangle"

?Price is about to go down from descending triangle. But I decided to watch as I'm not expert at price action pattern. So I don't actully know whether I'm right in drwaing patterns.

Figure 07: EURUSD 5m chart

??Price nicely went down. I missed good 18 pips at least. Price then started to move up generating a good force buy signal.

Figure 08: EURUSD 5m chart

??I got out of the trade with 9 pips but I could have 28 pips at least if I could stick to the trade. Next I saw a flag formed. I don't know whether I'm right or wrong.

Figure 09: EURUSD 5m chart

I took 4 pip by long position after the flag.

Figure 10: EURUSD 5m chart

News event is ahead. Let's see what happened after the news event "Core CPI m/m".?

Figure 11: EURUSD 5m chart. "Core CPI m/m"

?News effect lasted only for 5 mins. After that another news event was coming but of medium impact. After that news event price produced a good sell sgnal. I took it.

Figure 12: EURUSD 5m Chart

Figure 13: News event

Grabbed 8 pips there. I got out too early here also. Could get more than 30 pips. Then a buy signal came by force strategy.

Figure 14: EURUSD 5m chart

After that I took three more sell signal and one buy signal by force strategy. Two trades produced -11 pips and rest two produced 14 pips.

Total gain today is 35 pips. Total 10 trades by force. 2 were loser. One was my fault. At least 2 winner trade could generate more than triple profit.

More than 200 pips this week.

Trading with moving average (week 3 & 4)

Last couple weeks was night mare for me.... My 10 months baby girl was admitted in hospital due to acute gastroenteritis.... She is now ok.... For this I could not monitor market condition and post here the updates.. now I'm posting some updates...

I was holding positions in 3 pairs- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY.

EUR/JPY pair-- hit stop loss after I moved the S/L to break even (after price moving 200 pips from the entry point). So no gain virtually.

EUR/USD: When price moved 200 pips from the entry point I moved the S/L to the break even point.... price was moving up....At one point, price moved down and touched the 50 EMA....I've entered 2nd position as rules guided with S/L 100 pips and S/L of 1st entry should moved towards S/L of second entry as per rule of this system. I enthusiastically moved my S/L of first entry to the second entry level as price moved further up.... unfortunately S/L of my first entry got hit. Second entry is still in position and has 200 pips. If I would have followed the rules, I would have 200 pips more in position.... See the screenshot-

The green solid line was my S/L of first entry and Pink solid line was my first entry. The other two lines are my present position. If I could follow the rules... I should have almost 420 pips in this pair in one month.

GBP/USD: This pair had a good second entry point yesterday, but I've missed it as I was on duty and I couldn't monitor price action for more that 24 hours at a stretch....

GBP/USD

Now- Present status:

This pips count could reach almost 900+ if I could monitor it at least at 4 hours interval...... I think, I should change my strategy for monitoring the price action, otherwise, I'll loose pips on regular basis which is not good for my forex business.

Trading with moving average (week 1 & 2)

Recently I've found a relatively simple trading strategy by moving averages. I wish to trade following this strategy for next few weeks. I've added my trading account with myfxbook account and put a widget, so that everyone can see the results. I won't be posting regularly about that, rather you'll just check the results....

Name of the strategy: Dancing with EMA (given by owner)
Strategy collected from: FF
Currency pair: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY
Time frame: 4H
Indicator: 50 EMA & 5 SMA
Trading Environment: Trending market
Entry point:
Long: when 5 SMA crosses from below to above of 50 EMA and closing candle goes at least 100 pips....then enter long position after closing of current candle 100 pips away from 50 EMA.....

Short: Vice versa...

S/L: 100 pips

Progress: We'll enter again when the 5 SMA touches the 50 EMA with a stop loss 100 pips and the difference between two order should be at least 80 pips and the S/L of first order should be brought to the level of second order.... continue this until stop loss hit....

Now, let's go for an example....

GBP/USD pair

See the 5 SMA line crosses above the 50 EMA line to go beyond 100 pips.....After crossing the target pips... a long position taken.... Now check where is the position of crossing 100 pips..

GBP/USD pair

Order was placed on the next candle.... it was a late call though, as usual.... Now wait to see what happens next.... See now... after weekend.... gain of > 50 pips

GBP/USD pair

Good pip collection.... but according to the strategy we have to wait.... so wait... I've using the strategy in all the recommended pairs... Now see, how other two pairs are doing now....

EUR/USD pair:

EUR/JPY pair:

I'll post the progress later.... Now, 130+ pips in all three pairs (on 23.01.2012)....
On 24.01.2012 --
GBP/USD pair: 44+ pips
EUR/USD pair: 60+ pips
EUR/JPY pair: 65+ pips

Total 170+ pips (on 24.01.2012).....

On 25-01-12:

On 26-01-12:

On 28-01-12:

GBP/USD, bollinger band strategy

Forex trading is not at all an easy job. When you here someone talking about forex trading, some success stories, forex trading seems to be very easy. Sometimes we wish, we could trade like that.... Initially I also thought like that. But it needs a vast knowledge to be succeed in forex trading. Not only knowledge but also control of our emotion, managing time, maintaining discipline etc is equally essential.



Now I'll talk about another trade by bollinger band strategy with another currency pair.

Strategy collected from: mt5 forum
Currency pair: GBP/USD
Time frame: 1h
Indicator: Bollinger band only

Today, there was a good trading opportunity. Yesterday, this pair showed no opportunity with this strategy. But today it showed a strong opportunity.

The blue box is the area when we had to enter a short trade. But I was at my job place for which I missed it. Look how far it went down.... almost 90 pips... dream trade for a newbie with such a simple trading strategy. The current shown price was the first time I looked at the chart after it provided such a good short entry signal. As I was away from trading terminal due to unavoidable reason... I thought.... with such a good trend, let test that whether we can gain some pip here at this stage...

Here I traded twice along the trend.... Lost 21 pips and gained 10 pips... net 11 pips loss. I think.... controlling emotion is essential... missing a good opportunity always tries to compel me to enter a trade at a later period when it seems that there is more pips to take.... but actually this is the oversold area (in this case).... I think most of the newbies are failed by this temptation..... Control... control... secret of a successful trading.

Pips with bollinger band

Strategy collected from: mt5 forum
Currency pair: Any
Time frame: 1h
Indicator: Bollinger band only

Now--
Open any chart for any currency pair with a time frame of 1 hour. Then you'll need to draw vertical lines on the candle at 00.00 hours... To do it, keeping the chart on top, click Cntrl + Y. Insert bollinger band with a deviation of 1.5 instead of 2. If you've done this.... let's see how it looks on the chart:

At this stage, you'll need to draw two more horizontal lines. For this, consider the latest vertical line on candle zero. Put the horizontal lines here the vertical lines intersect the candle zero vertical line. To get some back testing, I've taken the third vertical line from the last. Let's see how it looks--

Entry rules:
For a long entry:
1. When a candle breaks down to the lower horizontal BB intersection line and closes above the line....
2. When a candle breaks up above the upper horizontal BB intersection line and closes above the line....

For a short entry:
Vice versa.....






Take profit:
For no 1 long entry: when candle crosses the upper horizontal BB intersection line...
For no 2 long entry: TP 20 pips only...

For no 1 short entry: when candle crosses the lower horizontal BB intersection line....
For no 2 short entry: TP 20 pips only..

SL: Half the value of TP

See... Good entry point... Now, I'll go for live example. I'll shift the horizontal lines to the latest candle zero. Could you find the good entry point?

Check from the next image whether you're right or wrong.....

See, more than 50 pips already....and it's going up more....As this opportunity is already gone for me, I'll wait for the next candle zero to get my good entry point....

Read more:

Example of Bollinger band trading

Trading with support and resistance

More than months back when I started to read about forex trading, I came to know about the support and resistance level in the chart. At that time I thought that, how can I know, which is support level and which one is resistance. I started to think that, I will need a guide always to point out those levels for me. With the thought in mind, I just started to ignore finding these levels.

Later I started demo trading 1 and 1/2 months back. Very recently while I was demo trading and trying to find out the chart patterns, suddenly I've found that, I started to see those horizontal support and resistance levels. So see the levels in my eyes--

See the top line is acting as a resistance level where the upward price movement bounces off. The middle line was acting as a support line where suddenly price broke down and the support line became resistance line and bottom line became the support line.....


This is what I understood. Now, please comment, whether I'm right or not...

Money management & Psychological management

As a newbie, when I read various tutorial, one thing comes regularly and repeatedly. That is, money management. Without proper money management plan, no one can be a successful forex trader. It's true. Initially when I tried to place order without any planning, I've earned few trade, one very big but lost so many small trade which ultimately took me to a net loss account. But when I started demo trading with specific trading strategies, my loss started to become a tolerable one. Trades with such strategies, I also started to build my confidence in forex trading which was a very negative one earlier. I started to lose hope and give away forex trading. But suddenly I've found a very good resource. With the proper use of it, I started to regain my lost confidence.

Another thing besides money management I've learned another thing. It has been discussed in the tutorials though.... I want to name it in a different way. That is, psychological management. Without this also, one cannot be a successful trader. During my demo trading with some popular strategies, I've found that, sometimes it becomes impossible to control my emotion regarding execution of a order in the trade.

During some trading I've found that, sometimes, indicators in a strategy, yet to give a signal but in a raw look, it seems that an entry is inevitable and profitable. Irresistible desire to get profit compels to enter a position when the indicators of the strategy in hand doesn't give any signal yet. Most of the times, it's found that, no signal generated where we already entered into the trade.

I know, sometimes, our intuitions are correct and not following our emotion leads to loss of some pips but in the long run, strictly following a strategy pays off. Developing this skill of psychological management is the most tough part, I think. Thus, money management & psychological management are the integral part of preparation for forex trading. I'm passing through this tough stage now. I believe, I'll need more time to learn these.

Chart patterns to identify future currency movement

Identifying chart pattern is one of the very important part of technical analysis. I was studying about chart patterns recently. During reading, it seems to be very easy to understand as the training materials shows the charts with marking the chart patterns. But when I try to find out a chart pattern in a live chart..... I feel like, I'm lost. I find nothing. I think, it needs more reading and regular practice of trying to find chart pattern.

I think, zooming out a live chart to get an overview of a larger picture in a different time frame might help finding a chart pattern. Yesterday, I was looking for chart pattern.....
Currency pair: EUR/USD
Time frame: 15M

Yesterday, I plotted the lines and thought it to be a pennant formation. Which means, price will continue previous trend. That is, if it forms after a downtrend, it will go downwards. It's a consolidation phase. So I went to bed assuming, price will go downwards and planned to show my analysis in the blog.

But today I found that price went upwards to previous swing high level. So I started to think, what wrong I've done here...why my calculation went wrong. I went through my tutorial again and then I found that I was wrong in my analysis in the very beginning. Pennant form after a very strong trend, almost a vertical trend. But here the market was almost moving sideways if we can just ignore that one small swing.

See, when it formed the ADX (14) was below 20. So strength of the trend was very poor. In fact it was a triangle, a symmetrical triangle (again, I'm not sure. I'm giving my opinion according to my own understanding by learning from online free tutorial). A symmetrical triangle can lead price to any direction. So when a symmetrical triangle forms, many traders gives two pending order, one above the triangle, a long position and another below the triangle, a short position. When one order hits, other closes. In this case price moved upwards.

A gain of about 40 pips. Not bad..... Holiday period now....markets should be ranging with some exceptions....

USD/JPY, 4 hour chart, a great buy signal

Strategy Collected from: FSR
Strategy no: Simple #1
Trading platform: MT4
Currency pair: USD/JPY
Time frame: any
Indicators: 5 & 10 EMA, Stochastic (14,3,3) & RSI (14)


A buy signal generates when 5 EMA crosses above of 10 EMA with stochastic heading upwards & not in overbought position and RSI is above 50. I've missed the opportunity yesterday. See here...

I've pointed out the points where the rules applied. Every indicator has given a good entry signal. What should be our target here regarding gaining profit. Before entry, we should work out all of this. First, what is the market condition? How much profit do we want?

Let us see again in the above picture but with some more modification below to understand what I'm going to say.....

Look, thick yellow line.... It's the support line. I've left the resistance line for you.... So the market is moving sideways....Look, the price has given buy signal just after it has bounced off of the support line. And it's moving towards the resistance line. So TP should be at that level. Or we can take a portion of the position and keep the rest to see if any breakout is going to happen or not. But as the holidays ahead along with forex weekend, breakout is unlikely.....

I'm giving my opinion from a learner's view. So I might be wrong. And again, I'm not considering the news event here...

EUR/USD, Daily chart with EMA & ADX system

Strategy collected from: FSR
Strategy no: Advanced #6
Trading platform: MT4
Currency pair: EUR/USD
Time frame: any
Indicators: 20 & 40 EMA and ADX (14)

With this strategy, any pair can be targeted in any time frame. According to the entry rules mentioning... enter when price bounces back from 20 EMA line with ADX (14) at above 30 level in a higher time frame available.... See the image below...

As it's a daily chart... wait..... From the above picture.... carefully see.... latest candle is touching the 20 EMA line from below. ADX (14) is above 30 level. This is the entry point for short position. But look at the ADX line... it's approaching the 30 line and probably at the next candle, it'll touch 30 which is a sign of exit (If I'm not wrong). So should I enter at this position?? I've posted the same position in the main site... Just asking, if anyone has any answer...

I've just entered a short position because, I want to test the strategy to get a profitable one. If I just seat back assuming what happen, then I won't be able to find one. What's the demo trade for?? I've asked the expert one. We'll be able to check the comment with a real time result.

Now wait and wait......

It worked. with a 2 micro lot short position already generated $2.40. But I'll wait for sell signal to generate following strategy.....

At the time of publishing the profit reached to $3.36..... remember, it's from a trade with only 2 microlot. I'll publish the final image after closing the position.

I've just closed my position with 40 pips as the market started ranging due to holidays ahead.... These holidays period is frustrating as price does not go anywhere..... I think, I'll refrain from enter any position till January 2012. By this time, I'll continue my study about forex...... I've downloaded 2 books. I'll let you know about those after I read them.....

Happy Holiday!!